POL products consumption decline by 32pc in October


KARACHI: The sale of petroleum products has registered 32 percent decline to 1.65 million tons in October 2018 as compared with 2.44 million tons in the same month of last year.



Analysts said that there are various factors that led to the sales decline including

i) Increase in prices of motor spirit and High Speed Diesel (HSD) by 30 percent and 38 percent YoY dampening fuel demand,

ii) Significant surge in diesel prices, as focus and reliance of electricity generation has been shifted to the national grid compared to diesel based generation,

iii) Advent of smuggled fuel from Iran and its expanding footprint from northern region to southern region, and

iv) Shifting of power generation from Furnace Oil (FO) to RLNG and Coal based generation resulting in lower demand of FO by 72 percent YoY.

Despite more working days in October 2018 compared to September 2018 and October 2017, MoGas sales depicted a flattish trend on yearly basis as volumes clocked-in at 0.62 million tons, down by 8 percent on monthly basis.

Similarly, HSD sales plummeted by 14 percent YoY while up by 1 percent MoM to 0.72 million tons. Meanwhile, FO sales witnessed a steep decline of 72 percent YoY and 19 percent MoM to 0.25 million tons.

Analysts said that this decline may be more evident in the winter season due to lower electricity demand.

During 4MFY19, FO and HSD sales witnessed a steep decline of 68 percent and 17 percent YoY to 1.10 million tons and 2.55 million tons, respectively.

Currently, total available stock of FO in the country is around 346,000 tons.

On a sequential basis, overall industry sales plunged by 6 percent MoM to 1.65 million tons. SHEL and PSO managed to outperform industry sales.

This growth was supported by HSD sales as both companies observed growth of 1 percent and 14 percent MoM, respectively.

Company-wise analysis demonstrates that it has been difficult for PSO to retain its market share as diminishing demand of FO dragged overall market share down to 44 percent during October 2018 (57 percent in October 2017).

Despite operating more than3,500 retail outlets, company’s retail volumes settled at 1.95 million tons during 4MFY19, down by 21 percent YoY compared to 2.48 million tons in SPLY.

On the other hand, total market share of APL and SHEL increased to 10.0 percent and 8.1 percent in October 2018 compared to 7.7 percent and 5.4 percent in October 2017, largely fueled by growth in sales of MS.

Meanwhile, HASCOL maintained its market share at 11.1 percent in October 2018 compared to 11.0 percent in October 2017.

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